News from the Front: estimation of excess mortality and life expectancy in the major epicenters of the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy

News from the Front: estimation of excess mortality and life expectancy in the major epicenters of the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy

by Simone Ghislandi, Raya Muttarak, Markus Sauerberg and Benedetta Scotti

Focusing on the five most severely hit provinces in Italy (Bergamo, Brescia, Cremona, Lodi and Piacenza) and Lombardy region, this analysis captures the impact of COVID-19 on mortality and life expectancy, which are likely to be underestimated when only national level data are considered.

We find that seasonal life expectancy in 2020 in the five provinces reduced by 5.1 to 7.8 and 3.2 to 5.8 years for men and women, respectively. For annual life expectancy for the year 2020, in a scenario with no harvesting effect i.e. mortality rates resume to an average level of the years 2015-2019 after the end of the first epidemic wave, the years of life lost is equivalent to 2 to 3.5 years for men and 1.1. to 2.5 years for women in the five provinces.

This represents the largest decline in life expectancy after the 1918 influenza pandemic and the Second World War.

The Paper: News from the front: Estimation of excess mortality and life expectancy in the major epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy by Simone Ghislandi, Raya Muttarak, Markus Sauerberg and Benedetta Scotti.


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